Grand expectations followed the election of Barack Obama. This can be attributed to high hopes on the side of his supporters, but his election campaign thrived on a strong criticism of the previous administration that has brought Obama’s detractors to expect even more. These hopes and expectations were stronger and felt by more people around the world when it came to foreign policy. The much lamented “apologetic tour” President Obama embarked upon may have restored a little lubrication to an international system seized up by American unilateralism, but Obama’s actual foreign policy gambits have showed little tangible deviation from his much maligned predecessor.
Although the exceptionalist swagger of the Bush era was easily reversed, Obama’s scrapping of Bush’s missile defense plan is truly a step in a different direction. Russia has already reacted favorably by reversing its threatened missile deployment near the Polish border, which clearly sends back a positive signal, but it’s still too early to claim the new policy a success as the US and Russian presidents meet this next week.
Russia has not only removed the threat of missile deployment, but a rebuke of the Iranian president’s most recent holocaust denial could be a sign of future concessions to come. More significant moves, such as allowing tougher sanctions on Iran and progress on a new START initiative will be expected from President Medvedev, however, many diplomatic circles believe a corner has been turned.
“The last decision by US President Barack Obama, which cancelled the plans to build missile defense facilities in Eastern Europe, brings us good thoughts,” Putin said during televised comments. “And I hope very much that this correct and brave decision will be followed by others.”
In a coincidental development, Irving Kristol, the god-father of neoconservative thought, died yesterday at 89 just as the anticommunist foreign policies of his movement are dealt a stunning setback by the Obama administration. Many liberal pundits commonly claim the steady encroachment of NATO membership countries and new military bases closer to Russia’s borders as well as the Bush administration’s missile defense policy has only served to reinforce the authoritarian impulses these policies hoped to undermine.
A contentious interview between Putin and journalists from the G8 nations in June of 2007 outlined Russian dissatisfaction with events following the fall of the Soviet Union, with a particular emphasis on recent encroachments by the Bush Administration. Russia’s interpretation of the Bush Administration’s security policy became clear when the South Ossetian war exploded in 2008. Various left wing publications and blogs repeatedly drew direct links between the Bush administration’s purportedly neoconservative agenda and increased tensions with Russia and now conservative authors are framing the Obama administration’s foreign policy agenda as revealingly Liberal. A range of opinions on the policy change can be found from the right at the Telegraph and Washington Post to left at the National Review and VOANews.
Officials from both sides of the American political spectrum, however, have found it easy to criticize a missile defense program theorized around a still nonexistent technology and aimed at long range missiles that are now confirmed to be a decade beyond Iran’s technical grasp. This seems to be why many diplomatic sources believe the Russians will continue to respond positively to any alternative US missile defense plan that deploys tangible, functional mobile weapons platforms against the proven medium and short range missiles stockpiled by Iran and North Korea now.
“Those who say we are scrapping missile defense in Europe are either misinformed or misrepresenting the reality of what we are doing,” says Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. After advising President Bush to deploy missile defense systems in 2006, Defense Secretary Gates now states that short- and medium-range missiles are the more immediate threat to American forces in Europe and to allies. Gates claims the United States will deploy radar sensors and interceptors in northern and southern Europe on ships.
There are varying opinions about Obama’s policy in the US and Europe, but government officials in Poland are especially disappointed by the change after exhibiting steadfast support for a string of Bush Administration policies including the Iraq War as well as controversial detention and rendition policies. Supporters claim the new missile defense policy is more pragmatic and cognizant of the wider need for Russian cooperation in containing rogue states like Iran and North Korea.
A comprehensive and thorough analysis of the policy change with a minimal political perspective can be found at the Nuclear Threat Initiative.
