Muammar Qaddafi tried to escape his “last stand” in Sirte twice this morning. According to BBC radio’s interview of Bernhard-Henri Levy, the French philosopher who single-handedly convinced Sarkozy to intervene, Qaddafi and his remaining loyalist fighters attempted to escape in a convoy of cars that first tried to go west, but had to turn back under heavy rebel fire. After another attempt to escape to the east failed the same way, Qaddafi ended up hiding in an underground cement drainage pipe where he was found by Anti-Qaddafi fighters. Various other reports claim that one of Qaddafi’s sons and some guards were with him in the cement pipe and were killed resisting, but others claim he was alone. It’s too early to tell fact from fiction, but most sources agree that Qaddafi was removed from his hiding place relatively unharmed. One report by a Rebel commander on CNN claimed that Qaddafi received a gunshot wound to the right arm on the way to a truck. The video of Qaddafi still alive, but bloodied and encircled by dozens of screaming fighters seems to show the captured dictator being put on a truck’s bed for transport from the site of his capture in Sirte. The next video of Qaddafi shows him clearly dead in Misurata. According to rebel sources, the truck carrying Qaddafi from Sirte was caught in the cross-fire between loyalist and rebel forces when he was killed.
This “cross-fire” story could simply be a lie covering up some rebel fighter who decided to execute Qaddafi or the remaining loyalist forces in Sirte could’ve attempt a last ditch rescue effort that went wrong. Either way, the people of Libya are probably not going to question the death of Qaddafi nearly as much as the rest of the world will. Besides, you couldn’t convict someone for the killing of Qaddafi right now if you tried; even if Libya had a justice system to speak of. This just leaves the global media cycle flashing pictures and videos of the violent death of a violent dictator. The third possible scenario of the Arab Spring is complete.
With Tunisia, we saw the Arab Spring successfully overwhelm the dictator’s government there and the deposed Ben Ali simply fled into exile. That’s scenario one; run for it. Next we saw Egypt’s Mubarak put up a bit of a fight, but only enough to get him and his government in trouble for killing protesters. The stubborn Tahrir Square protesters stuck it out to the amazement of the world and Mubarak stepped down to leave for a vacation home in Sharm el-Sheik. This was too much for the Egyptian people to stand, so scenario two involved the former dictator going on trial along with his sons. The third scenario was exemplified by Libya’s Qaddafi trying to crush his people and starting a civil war that only took six months to end with his violent death.
Now we have the rest of the dictators in the Middle East watching closely and they all have the information they need to understand what the Arab Spring will bring them. The obvious choice for true dictators in the region is to flee with their lives, while government’s like Saudi Arabia try to reform and democratize by giving more women’s rights and directly disbursing oil revenue funds to citizens. Although Saudi Arabia is playing nice on one side of the coin, the riot troops they sent to Bahrain show the other side of the coin is quite bloody. There’s a good chance that President Saleh will now see his only hope of survival lies in making a run for it. If Saleh decides to try and stay in Yemen, this may only be possible by relying on the protection of his tribe. If Yemen somehow falls into scenario three, a protracted civil war in Yemen is very possible. Unlike Libya, such a civil war could outlast Saleh’s death with tribal loyalties dividing the country for years.
Unfortunately, Syria is already almost locked into scenario three. Assad may think it wise to arrange for several escape routes because the beginnings of a civil war are already manifesting. The free Syrian Army gathers more deserters everyday and the people’s protests surge against Assad every Friday, especially the Friday after Qaddafi’s death. Most likely, Assad’s isolation within a sycophantic inner circle will keep him believing he can win a civil war. The complete loyalty of Syria’s Allawi sect to Assad could make this civil war surpass the gore of Libya’s, but the outcome will be the same. The Syria of Assad is doomed. The people of Syria have a long and painful road ahead of them, but they now see a light at the end of the darkest of tunnels. Once all peaceful options have been exhausted they will most likely be forced to take up arms. It’s just too bad they won’t find the same international support that Libya did.
