If Kim Jong Un is planning on somehow opening up the dark anachronistic pit that is North Korea, things will get equally worse in the short term. In this writers opinion, the Arab Spring heralds the eventual end of all dictatorships around the world. This will probably not happen until around 2020, but I still believe that most dictatorship’s days are numbered, even if it takes until 2030. The most painful of these totalitarian implosions will probably be North Korea. While authoritarian regimes in the Middle East are falling apart at the seams because of an educated middle class that simply demands the dignity of either liberty or death, things aren’t quite the same in Pyongyang.

The North Korean people are still under enormous pressure as is the government, but when things fall apart, which they will eventually do, there will be millions of brainwashed North Koreans that are going to get very violent. It would be nothing short of a miracle for there to be a peaceful transition to democracy in North Korea. The North Korean military and state apparatus has been preparing for this since its founding in the dark days after WWII. Even if Kim Jong Un loses control, the regime will go down kicking and screaming. This will mean a very quick, but extremely violent war that will remind the world what warfare was like during the WWII years. The good news is that by the time 2020 – 2030 rolls around, the world will be unrecognizable and most people on earth will live free, but the birth of this new world will be incredibly painful, especially for those who are not yet living free. The most painful example of this impending dynamic will not be Iran, it will be North Korea.

The BRICs are Brazil, Russia, India, and China, who may be needed to help Europe with bailout money, but they’re gonna treat this like any good investor should and check the credit of the PIIGS first. That is, if they decide to help the three little PIIGS at all. Yeah, were actually talking about three countries because it turns out Ireland and Portugal are so small that they could solve their problems with some tough love and a pinch of money from some smart investors. Greece has just caused a major upheaval in just forming a new government and deciding to accept the recent bail out deal. Italy has also ended the party and brought in Mario Marti (Super Mario will probably stick) to hold Italy’s hand through the hangover to come. Spain should be nearly as much trouble as Italy’s larger economy, but somebody will be needed to cover everyone and keep the markets fluid.

This falls to Germany, but Germany can’t do it alone. Better yet, Germans refuse to do it alone. France is a large economy, but having their own economic skeletons in the closet will soon cause some chips to settle, so Sarkozy will not have the firepower to back Merkel through the long road to come. Germany will do as much as Merkel can get her electorate to stand, but that won’t be nearly enough to guarantee market confidence. Germany will have to step up by itself to guarantee any bailout money from the BRICS. If Germany does this, they will be rewarded with both the leadership of Europe as well as the continued fruits of the European economic machine. The risks, however, are large.

Strangely enough, this is an incredible turn of events if y0u think about it. Germany spent enormous money and lives in the early twentieth century while taking millions of lives in trying to dominate Europe. After all that blood and loss, Germany now finds itself being burdened with the very dominance and leadership of Europe it sought for so long. Stranger still, many Germans are seeking to shirk this opportunity. I will discuss Germany’s chance to save the world in another post, but back to the analogy. Any hope of the BRICs, or even Germany, to save the PIIGS from the big bad wolf are doomed to failure. The necessary capital will never make it to the governments that need it because the German electorate will most likely not agree to endanger the fruits of their economic frugality to save countries that they believe deserve a healthy economic purge. Outside of Europe, the Brazilians, Russians, Indians, and Chinese are feeling their own slow down and will be equally weary of sacrificing their economic success to save countries that made their bed and should now sleep in it. In addition, the best way to consolidate the recent increase in the economic power of the BRICS would be allow the European chips fall where they may. Long story short, the PIIGs are screwed.

This “cross-fire” story could simply be a lie covering up some rebel fighter who decided to execute Qaddafi or the remaining loyalist forces in Sirte could’ve attempt a last ditch rescue effort that went wrong. Either way, the people of Libya are probably not going to question the death of Qaddafi nearly as much as the rest of the world will. Besides, you couldn’t convict someone for the killing of Qaddafi right now if you tried; even if Libya had a justice system to speak of. This just leaves the global media cycle flashing pictures and videos of the violent death of a violent dictator. The third possible scenario of the Arab Spring is complete.

With Tunisia, we saw the Arab Spring successfully overwhelm the dictator’s government there and the deposed Ben Ali simply fled into exile. That’s scenario one; run for it. Next we saw Egypt’s Mubarak put up a bit of a fight, but only enough to get him and his government in trouble for killing protesters. The stubborn Tahrir Square protesters stuck it out to the amazement of the world and Mubarak stepped down to leave for a vacation home in Sharm el-Sheik. This was too much for the Egyptian people to stand, so scenario two involved the former dictator going on trial along with his sons. The third scenario was exemplified by Libya’s Qaddafi trying to crush his people and starting a civil war that only took six months to end with his violent death.

Now we have the rest of the dictators in the Middle East watching closely and they all have the information they need to understand what the Arab Spring will bring them. The obvious choice for true dictators in the region is to flee with their lives, while government’s like Saudi Arabia try to reform and democratize by giving more women’s rights and directly disbursing oil revenue funds to citizens. Although Saudi Arabia is playing nice on one side of the coin, the riot troops they sent to Bahrain show the other side of the coin is quite bloody. There’s a good chance that President Saleh will now see his only hope of survival lies in making a run for it. If Saleh decides to try and stay in Yemen, this may only be possible by relying on the protection of his tribe. If Yemen somehow falls into scenario three, a protracted civil war in Yemen is very possible. Unlike Libya, such a civil war could outlast Saleh’s death with tribal loyalties dividing the country for years.

Unfortunately, Syria is already almost locked into scenario three. Assad may think it wise to arrange for several escape routes because the beginnings of a civil war are already manifesting. The free Syrian Army gathers more deserters everyday and the people’s protests surge against Assad every Friday, especially the Friday after Qaddafi’s death. Most likely, Assad’s isolation within a sycophantic inner circle will keep him believing he can win a civil war. The complete loyalty of Syria’s Allawi sect to Assad could make this civil war surpass the gore of Libya’s, but the outcome will be the same. The Syria of Assad is doomed. The people of Syria have a long and painful road ahead of them, but they now see a light at the end of the darkest of tunnels. Once all peaceful options have been exhausted they will most likely be forced to take up arms. It’s just too bad they won’t find the same international support that Libya did.

It seems counter intuitive to make the comparison at first, but an old fart at a Tea Party rally with a sign reading “Don’t touch my Medicare” has a lot in common with a college student asking for Wall Street to pay back the TARP money (which they did, but that doesn’t get them completely off the hook). Seriously, even an anti-Obama birther has something in common with a 9/11 truther. They are all incredibly ignorant of reality and they do not represent mainstream America in any way shape or form. I think Karl Denninger’s experience with the Tea Party has more than the above parallels.

In fact, sharing a few lessons learned, Karl implores the OWS protesters to not settle on any specific demands and to not stop the occupations. In fact, “The problem with protests and the political process is that it is very easy, no matter how big the protest is, for the politicians to simply wait for the people to go home,” says Denninger. “Then they can ignore you.” His first bit of advice, to not go home, is probably more feasible with OWS protesters because of the chronic unemployment experienced by most of them this far into the recession.

Strangely enough, the biggest complaint about OWS from the right as well as most Tea Partiers seems to be their lack of specific demands, but Denninger praises this as well. “One of the things that the Occupy movement seems to have going for it is it has not turned around and issued a set of formal demands,” said Denninger. “This is a good thing, not a bad thing. Everyone is looking for a set of demands.” Denninger added that once the protesters formally approach the banks and government with a list of demands, “then somebody is going to say, ‘Well, we gave you 70 percent. Now go home.’”

Karl Denninger’s final advice to the OWS movement, “Stay on message, which is that the corruption is not a singular event,” he said. “You can’t focus in one place. You have to get the money out of politics, which is very difficult to do, but at the same time you can’t silence people’s voice.” Maybe there’s our common ground. Get the money out of politics, can’t argue with that.

http://rt.com/usa/news/tea-occupy-denninger-wall-819/

In my experience, you can find out very quickly if you are talking to a Pakistani with a logical mind not polluted by the cultural of conspiracy so rampant in Pakistan. All you need do is utter the word India. If the Pakistani you’re conversing with suddenly puffs out their chest and claims that Indian forces vastly outnumber Pakistan’s army and their country could be cut in half in a matter of days, then you have a culturally insane Pakistani who is about to justify why the ISI keeps the Taliban and the Haqqani network on a long leash.

If they shake their head and tell you that India is where the American special forces train to pose as Islamic terrorists to carry out suicide attacks and bombings in Pakistan because their Islamic militants would never kill fellow Pakistanis, then you got another loon on your hands about to tell you that American special forces assassinated Benazir Bhutto.

If they instead shake their head and simply lament that India, its economy, and its people are leaving Pakistan behind in a swamp of religious extremism with a powerless civilian government cowering before a dominant military establishment. You have now met a true Pakistani, a well educated worldly person that will probably bring up the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) and start to explain how, without the war on terror, there would’ve been a P in that BRIC somewhere.

In my opinion, this is all for the best. The Obama administration decision to move beyond the false public relationship with Pakistan and do what it takes to destroy the Haqqani network sheltering on the Pakistani side of the border was the correct choice. I don’t care what political party you affiliate yourself with, this is the classic false choice war bullshit that America always get mired in. In the Korean conflict, American forces had one hand tied behind their back when it came to crossing the 38th parallel because of China’s involvement. In the Vietnam war, the same hand was tied when it came to North Vietnam and the Ho Chi Minh trail in Cambodia and Laos. Today, we have Taliban forces attacking American units and conducting suicide assaults in Kabul before ducking back over the Pakistani border to rest, refresh, and resupply. There are even some reports coming out that Pakistan’s ISI is responsible for bringing the Taliban back from near defeat in 2002 through organization, rearming and training assistance.

The Haqqani boys are basically the closest thing on the planet to the old hardcore Al Qaeda people from a decade ago. These guys were there from the beginning during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and worked with Osama since way back then too. They have recently come to the conclusion that striking Americans any way possible is necessary. They’ve been carrying out increasingly bold attacks within Afghanistan, but are desperate to hit the US. Pakistan cherishes these individuals as an effective bulwark against an alliance between India and Afghanistan, their greatest fear. Unfortunately, Pakistan’s strategy is well known to all players and as a result of this path, Afghanistan and India have recently signed a strategic alliance pact. Pakistan didn’t like this.

I still maintain that this is all for the best. Even when Pakistan starts courting China to replace the guns and butter they used to get from the US, this action still breaks down a dangerous dynamic that holds Afghanistan hostage. Getting Pakistan to remove it’s strategic thumb from Afghanistan would be more effective than staying in Afghanistan to kill every last Taliban fighter. Removing the Haqqani network is, unfortunately, very important to US national security.

One of the things about drone attacks that the media doesn’t tell Americans very much involves women and children. Not the drone attacks gone bad that kill innocent civilians. I’m talking about many of the successful drone attacks that kill known terrorists. These hits usually kill the families surrounding these terrorists. I mention this because I myself am not so sure about the morality of assassination, especially when it means the murder of the targets family. I also mention this because Jalaluddin Haqqani, the head of the entire family-based terror network, lost eight grandchildren to a single US drone strike in September of 2008. Just in case you question the motivation of the Haqqani network to attack the United States, imagine what you would plan for the people that killed eight of your grandchildren. I know these particular grand kids would’ve been raised to kill Americans and Jews, but that doesn’t change how much the Haqqani’s want revenge. These guys cannot be overlooked for the sake of Pakistani-US relations.

A large team of Navy SEALS fast roped from helicopters into the multimillion dollar compound with the help of indigenous CIA contractors who threw flares and provided fuel for the trip back to Afghan airspace. The same CIA operatives were involved in the surveillance of Bin Laden’s hideout before the SEALS assaulted the compound. One of the helicopters used by the naval special warfare operators had problems and was destroyed before being left behind. This destroyed chopper turned out to reveal the use of stealth helicopters by the US military. Just as Leon Panetta said following this assault, there are two plausible scenarios. First, Pakistan is complicit in hiding Osama Bin Laden. Second, Pakistan is recklessly incompetent in finding the most wanted man in the world right under their noses. The scary truth here is that both assertions are true, not one or the other.

Pakistan’s military, especially the Inter-Services-Intelligence agency (ISI), is arguably incompetent in several ways, but there is also a significant portion of the Pakistani military establishment that supports Al Qaeda as well as the Taliban. The job of supporting these mad dog organizations in order to “defend” Pakistan’s strategic interests is only made that much easier by the general incompetence of this country’s military. Also aiding Pakistan’s assistance of terrorist organizations is the fact that most in the Pakistani military are strictly Islamic, as is the rest of Pakistani society, and they believe America is the real enemy. In fact, a surprising amount Pakistani citizens, avid conspiracy theorists, believe that most of the terrorist acts carried out on Pakistani soil that kill Pakistani citizens are actually carried out by American special forces wearing beards and Taliban style clothing.

I’m not making this up, many Pakistanis believe that we send our special forces into their country disguised as Taliban to slaughter their people. Frequent drone strikes and occasional special forces incursions in pursuit of Taliban from Afghanistan breath life into this conspiracy theory. This may explain why most people in Pakistan feel Osama was a hero and they would feel betrayed if they found the Pakistani military to be involved in his killing. Pakistan’s military had no clue about this operation, which not only made it’s success possible, but it also widens the gulf between American and Pakistani interests at a very dangerous time in the history of this nuclear power Islamic state.

Even with the rise of Islamic fundamentalism and extremist organizations, Middle East governments were never capable of stopping Friday prayers. The use of social networking applications over the internet to encourage mass gatherings definitely played an important role, but the gatherings usually take place at mosques during Friday prayers and the established religious acceptance of these gatherings has added legitimacy to what is now a hallmark of the Arab Spring. The Jumu’ah can also serve as a back up network to organize weekly protests under extreme government repression when internet access has been blocked. As the momentum of the Arab Spring continues to gather, it must be admitted that this is turning out to be a slow momentum. The fall of Mubarak’s Egypt has made the Arab Spring unstoppable, but the actions of regimes controlling Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain have stretched this inevitable revolution into what may be a decade of painful transition.

Qaddafi will fall and Assad will fall as well, but the Arab Spring and the slow transition to democratic government from Morocco to Pakistan could take 10 years or longer. The Jumu’ah or Friday prayers will serve well in keeping up the endless tempo of revolution, no matter how long it takes, ensuring change is brought to every population that demands it. Smoothing out all the economic wrinkles, stamping out corruption, and removing the need for international aid funds from these countries will take 10 to 20 years, but make no mistake, this will happen. The entire international community is already gearing up for what could be the biggest wave of democratic revolutions since the Spring of Nations in 1848 surpassing the fall of Communism.

Unlike Egypt, there is very little daylight, if any, between the ruling regime and the Syrian military. Assad continues the exploitation of ethnic divisions that his father basically institutionalized which allows an order to slaughter peaceful protesters to be carried out without question. Some Syrians in the military will mutiny against this kind of government murder of the civilian public, but those brave enough to do so will most likely be cut down methodically just as they are being cut down in Libya. Both the Syrian and Libyan regimes have been preparing their governments to withstand such an uprising for decades, so both have secret intelligence apparatus within their military as well as prepared propaganda campaigns and tools of terror to keep everyone in line.

The only thing fighting against brutality in Syria now is the fearlessness of the Arab public. All regimes are coming to realize that the tactics of the past are no longer suppressing the people as successfully as they have. Governments are choosing between rapid reform, collapse under public pressure, or viciously slaughtering and repressing those that seek freedom and liberty. Those Libyans that support Qaddafi have made their choice and now those Syrians that support Assad have made theirs. The attempt by Qaddafi to delay the inevitable is basically a totalitarian experiment. Whether he hopes for some kind of deal or amnesty or he simply hopes to die in power, it remains to be seen how many other Middle East leaders will take the same path. Assad seems to believe he has no choice but to never waver, obviously thinking that strength and brutality will see him through better than capitulation.

Those leaders of Arab countries that limit the brutality with which they handle protesters will keep or lose power in a much more stable and peaceful environment, but if these leaders decide to hold onto power by their teeth, the western world will reach in and defang those leaders as they are doing to Gaddafi now. This will allow the 2011 Arab Revolutions to maintain their momentum. Hillary Clinton made a point to mention Bahrain and the forces from various Persian Gulf nations that have entered that Shiite majority country to put down protests to make that very point.

The way this military operation is played in the context of the 2012 elections will be a litmus test for Americans as far as how they want foreign policy handled in this second decade of the 21st century. We all know we can’t afford to keep our state budgets in the black, so we should also know that we can’t afford to maintain massively expensive land wars over years and sometimes decades. Spending a couple of hundred million dollars on Tomahawks from off shore while Sarkozy sends his flyboys into Libya to lead the cavalry charge sounds about right to me. Besides, US forces had to clear the skies before NATO could call it a no fly zone.

We are weaning the world, and our own massive ego, from the concept of the United States acting as the world’s police force.  If Operation Odyssey Dawn is one of those baby steps, then so be it. Maybe next time we can just cut a check to the UN and sit it all out?  Then we can start reducing the amount of that check and increasing the amount paid by China, Brazil, India, Russia and the EU.  Let’s at least start sharing the burden and the ‘morning after’ guilt for these huge international military campaigns if we can’t avoid them altogether.